Obama's Gaffe?

Bernanke has 'stayed a lot longer' than he wanted at Fed.

一国の大統領が、その政府の人事について言及するのはよくあることだ。

しかし、昨日のニュースにかなりの違和感を覚えたのは私だけだろうか。

出だしの台詞がそれである。国家元首、しかも世界最大の影響力を持つ国の大統領の発言にはおのずと重要な理由が付きまとう（はずだ）。テレビのインタビュー番組とは言え、当然ある程度想定されたシナリオが用意されているはずである。この発言は、一体どうだったのだろう。

コンテクストなしにこの台詞を耳にすると、あたかも現職に対して批判的であるとしか思えない印象を受ける。不本意ながら（渋々）在任を認めてきた、といったニュアンスだ。

確かに、バーナンキ議長自ら、周到に続投を否定するようなコメントや動きが今までにいくつかなされていた。

「（超金融緩和からの）出口策の指揮をとれるのは私だけではない（"I don't think that I'm the only person in the world who can manage the exit,"）」 と発言し、世界の中銀関係者が高原の避暑地（Jackson Hole）に一同に集う最重要の会合への不参加を不自然なほど早々と公表しており、メディアは後継者もほぼ絞られつつある状況下では、冒頭のオバマ発言は”巷をひっくり返す”ニュースではなかったかもしれない。

それでも、私からすれば、世界中の注目を集め、株式はじめ主要なマーケットひいては世界経済をも大きく左右する莫大な影響力を持つ機関の長に対するコメントとしては、あまりに軽率な印象を受けた。世界を崩壊の淵から救い出した（helped pull the world's economies back from the brink of collapse）と、両党派の有力議員が功績を認め、一定の称賛を示す現議長に対する発言であるだけになおさらである。

もちろん、世界的に金融危機からの回復は当初予想を大幅に裏切る結果となり、すでに5年の歳月が流れた現在でさえ、傷跡はいたるところに散見される。金融政策の限界が語られる中、オバマ政権も、厳しい財政状況下で長引く雇用情勢の低迷をはじめとする景気回復の遅れへの対応が最大の政治課題として突きつけられているのが現状だ。

万能の金融政策に失望したオバマ発言に冷や汗をかいたWhite House 高官は、Obama's remarks were reflecting his admiration for the length and depth of Bernanke's commitment to serve as Fed chair in a difficult period and at a significant personal sacrifice. と、フォローコメントを出している。

BOOKMARK DELL 20130515

Bookmarks




20130501



(34) Twitter.url

ADP Says U.S. Companies Employed Fewer Workers Than Forecast - Bloomberg.url

Big Banks Still Aren’t Safe Enough - Bloomberg.url

China Manufacturing Gauge Signals Slowdown Persisting Economy - Bloomberg.url

Crude Tumbles as U.S. Supplies Climb to 82-Year High - Bloomberg (2).url

Crude Tumbles as U.S. Supplies Climb to 82-Year High - Bloomberg.url

Economics One Another Take on Reinhart-Rogoff Controversy.url

Fed Maintains QE Pace, Prepared to Alter as Economy Evolves - Bloomberg (2).url

Fed Maintains QE Pace, Prepared to Alter as Economy Evolves - Bloomberg.url

Fed on U.S. Growth Don't Blame Us - Bloomberg (2).url

Fed on U.S. Growth Don't Blame Us - Bloomberg.url

Fed Seen Slowing Stimulus With QE Cut by End of This Year - Bloomberg.url

Federal Open Market Committee May 1 Statement Full Text - Bloomberg.url

For 25 Cents, Consumers Can Wash Blood Off Their T-Shirts - Bloomberg.url

FX（外国為替証拠金取引）ならマネックスFX／マネックス証券 (2).url

FX（外国為替証拠金取引）ならマネックスFX／マネックス証券.url

Is Obama Appalled by His Own Anti-Terrorism Policies - Bloomberg (2).url

Is Obama Appalled by His Own Anti-Terrorism Policies - Bloomberg.url

Manufacturing in U.S. Expands at Slowest Pace This Year - Bloomberg.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

Reinhart and Rogoff Were Right About New Zealand - Bloomberg.url

Sunday Baroque.url

U.S. Sees Floating-Rate Note by 1Q 2014, Lower Coupon Sizes - Bloomberg (2).url

U.S. Sees Floating-Rate Note by 1Q 2014, Lower Coupon Sizes - Bloomberg.url

When Austerity Doesn't Look So Austere - Bloomberg.url

whisperings Solo Piano Radio.url



20130502



(42) Twitter.url

American Auto Industry Has Best Performance in 20 Years - Bloomberg.url

Americans Most Upbeat in Five Years as Firings Slow Economy - Bloomberg.url

Beazer Rises After CEO Forecasts a Profit Atlanta Mover - Bloomberg.url

Canada Said to Name Carney Central Bank Replacement Today - Bloomberg.url

Carney Guidance Policy Risks Backlash at BOE U.K. Credit - Bloomberg.url

Central Bank Transparency Grows Under Geraats Pressure - Bloomberg.url

Companies Insist on IRS Break While Extolling Rate Reform - Bloomberg.url

David Blech Gets Four Years for Manipulating Stock Prices - Bloomberg.url

Draghi Leaves Door Open to Further Monetary Easing - Bloomberg.url

ECB Cuts Interest Rates to Record Low as Recession Lingers - Bloomberg.url

ECB Sugar Hit Doesn’t Change Euro’s Long-Term Challenges - Bloomberg.url

EU Says Italy Forecasts to Include Payment of Corporate Bills - Bloomberg.url

Fed Open to Expanding QE as It Counters Talk of Tapering - Bloomberg.url

http--www.sky.fm-classical-.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Obama’s 24-Hour Mexico Policy Fails Both Sides of Border - Bloomberg.url

Stephen Poloz Named Bank of Canada Head Replacing Carney - Bloomberg.url

Top Investors Will Feel Heat of New Epoch - Bloomberg.url

Trade Deficit in U.S. Narrowed More Than Forecast in March - Bloomberg.url

VIX Clings to Stocks Like It’s 2007 as S&P 500 Peaks - Bloomberg.url

West Virginia Governor Backs Medicaid Expansion for Poor - Bloomberg.url



20130503



(23) Twitter.url

Austerity Sparks Suicides When Recession Hits Cutting Research - Bloomberg.url

California Wildfire Prompts Evacuations North of L.A. - Bloomberg.url

Dow Reaches 15,000 as Jobs Growth Exceeds Forecasts - Bloomberg.url

Draghi Mulls Negative Campaign as Economy Struggles - Bloomberg.url

EU Lowers Forecast as Euro Area Heads For Two-Year Slump - Bloomberg.url

Factory Orders in U.S. Decreased More Than Forecast in March - Bloomberg.url

Fed’s Lacker Says QE Won’t Lift Growth While Posing Risk - Bloomberg.url

G-7 Governments Not Playing Favorites as Central Banks Revamped - Bloomberg.url

Gross Sees New Normal Intact Amid 7.5% Unemployment Tom Keene - Bloomberg.url

Long-Term Unemployment Is Turning Jobless Into Pariahs - Bloomberg.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

Obama Asks Trade Nominees to Tackle Slumping U.S. Exports - Bloomberg.url

Payrolls in U.S. Rise 165,000 as Unemployment Rate Drops - Bloomberg.url

Service Industries in U.S. Expand at Slowest Pace Since July - Bloomberg.url

Stephen Poloz Named Bank of Canada Head Replacing Carney - Bloomberg.url

Tarullo Calls for Greater Capital, Liquidity at Large Banks - Bloomberg.url



20130504



Austerity Sparks Suicides When Recession Hits Cutting Research - Bloomberg.url

Fed’s Lacker Says QE Won’t Lift Growth While Posing Risk - Bloomberg.url

If Interest Rates Go Negative . . . Or, Be Careful What You Wish For - Liberty Street Economics.url

Monetary policy Can the Fed offset contractionary fiscal policy The Economist.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

Preventing The Next Catastrophe Where Do We Stand iMFdirect - The IMF Blog.url

Tarullo Calls for Greater Capital, Liquidity at Large Banks - Bloomberg.url

The Austerity Delusion Foreign Affairs.url

Twitter.url

zero lower - Google Search.url



20130505



(3) Twitter.url

Austerity Sparks Suicides When Recession Hits Cutting Research - Bloomberg.url

Europe's jobs crisis comes into sharper relief Reuters.url

Fed’s Lacker Says QE Won’t Lift Growth While Posing Risk - Bloomberg.url

Finding the Keys to National Prosperity by Jeffrey D. Sachs - Project Syndicate.url

Fiscal consolidation At what speed vox.url

France Socialism Meets Deflation by Christopher T. Mahoney - Project Syndicate.url

How the oil and gas boom will change America An interview with Michael Levi.url

If Interest Rates Go Negative . . . Or, Be Careful What You Wish For - Liberty Street Economics.url

Monetary policy Can the Fed offset contractionary fiscal policy The Economist.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

Munger Decries Wall Street Approach at Deposit-Taking Banks - Bloomberg.url

negative interest rates - Google 検索.url

Preventing The Next Catastrophe Where Do We Stand iMFdirect - The IMF Blog.url

Reflections of a Newsosaur.url

Self-defeating austerity shocks vox.url

Should the United States Have 2.2 Million More Jobs Brookings Institution.url

Tarullo Calls for Greater Capital, Liquidity at Large Banks - Bloomberg.url

The alternatives to austerity The effect on jobs and incomes in the UK vox.url

The Austerity Delusion Foreign Affairs.url

The global vacuum of power is expanding Ian Bremmer.url

The New Economy of Fealty by Harold James - Project Syndicate.url



20130506



(27) Twitter.url

A Little More on Krugman - Bloomberg.url

Austerity Sparks Suicides When Recession Hits Cutting Research - Bloomberg.url

Bond Buyers See No 1994 Rout Helped by Bernanke Clarity - Bloomberg.url

Colleges In U.S. Offer Highest-Ever Discount to Entice Students - Bloomberg.url

Diminished Housing Wealth Effect Keeps Pressure on Fed - Bloomberg.url

Draghi Says ECB Ready to Cut Interest Rates Again If Needed - Bloomberg.url

Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment - Federal Reserve Bank of New York.url

Exchange Rates and Austerity - NYTimes.com.url

Fed Loan Officer Survey Says Business Loans Lead Credit Thaw - Bloomberg.url

France Declares Austerity Over as Germany Offers Wiggle Room - Bloomberg.url

Gold Bulls Split With Buffett as Traders Say Sell Commodities - Bloomberg.url

Gore Is Romney-Rich With $200 Million After Bush Defeat - Bloomberg.url

Household Debt and Credit Report - Federal Reserve Bank of New York.url

Inbox (27,748) - ayako.nakagawa@gmail.com - Gmail.url

INSEAD - North America Offices - Contact.url

INSEAD Master in Finance.url

Madonna, DiCaprio, Allen Boost $1.3 Billion May Auctions - Bloomberg.url

MBIA Said to Get About $1.6 Billion in Cash in BofA Deal - Bloomberg.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

New York AG Wells Fargo, BofA Violated National Foreclosure Settlement.url

Not the Treasury view... White flight 600,000 have quit London in a decade. The true figure is far higher.url

Obama Invites Three Senators for Golf Game as Lawmakers Return - Bloomberg.url

Poloz May Keep Canada’s Rate-Increase Bias in Expansion - Bloomberg.url

Productivity or Employment Is It a Choice.url

Space Design - Fully furnished and serviced rental apartments in Tokyo and Yokohama are here..url

Unemployment Benefit Cut Adds to Drag on U.S. Spending Economy - Bloomberg.url

Welcome to INSEAD Europe Campus.url



20130507



(2) The AV Club (TheAVClub) on Twitter.url

A Hacker’s Market by Chris Clearfield and András Tilcsik - Project Syndicate.url

Austerity Sparks Suicides When Recession Hits Cutting Research - Bloomberg (2).url

Austerity Sparks Suicides When Recession Hits Cutting Research - Bloomberg.url

Bankers Warn Fed of Farm, Student Loan Bubbles Echoing Subprime - Bloomberg (2).url

Bankers Warn Fed of Farm, Student Loan Bubbles Echoing Subprime - Bloomberg.url

berentsen.url

Consumer Credit in U.S. Increases Less Than Forecast - Bloomberg (2).url

Consumer Credit in U.S. Increases Less Than Forecast - Bloomberg.url

Cyberpolitics in International Relations Foreign Affairs.url

Does Money Still Matter for Monetary Policy - Economic Brief, 13-05, May 2013 - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.url

eb_13-05.url

econbrowser R&D and benchmark revisions of GDP for Robinson Crusoe.url

Fed Advisory Panel Warned of Rising Credit Risk to Banks - Bloomberg.url

Greenspan-Era Faith in Fed Seen With Bernanke Chart of the Day - Bloomberg.url

Inbox (27,773) - ayako.nakagawa@gmail.com - Gmail.url

Israeli Attacks Show Why Obama Must Step Up In Syria - Bloomberg.url

Job Openings in the U.S. Drop From Almost Five-Year High - Bloomberg.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

Photo by albertonardelli • Instagram.url

poll Which Austerity Measures Will Be Most Likely to Affect Recovery Enterprising Investor.url

Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy - Research Publications - St. Louis Fed.url

Senate Passes Wal-Mart Backed Bill for Taxes on Web Sales - Bloomberg.url

Stocks Climb on Earnings as Aussie Dollar Falls on Rates - Bloomberg.url

The Rise of Big Data Foreign Affairs.url

Twitter - AdamPosen Heard plausible case today ....url

Twitter.url



20130509



(7) Twitter.url

BOE Refrains From Expanding Stimulus as Recovery Assessed - Bloomberg.url

Central Banks Keep Easing After 511 Cuts Fail to Spur Economies - Bloomberg.url

China Subdued Inflation Gives Room to Raise Utility Costs - Bloomberg.url

ECB Says Rate Cut Is Consistent With Low Inflation in Euro Area - Bloomberg.url

ECB Seen Desisting From Further Rate Cut Until 2015 - Bloomberg.url

Economics Needs Replication Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET).url

FX（外国為替証拠金取引）ならマネックスFX／マネックス証券.url

Housing Recovery Opens Window to Fix Homeowner Tax Breaks - Bloomberg.url

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall to Five-Year Low - Bloomberg.url

King Confronts Recovery as BOE Seen Keeping QE on Hold - Bloomberg.url

Krugman, DeLong and Radical Centrism - Bloomberg.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

SEC Should Make Companies Disclose Political Spending - Bloomberg.url

Senators Eye 21st Century World of Campaign Finance - Bloomberg.url

U.S. Should Export Natural Gas, Not Coal - Bloomberg.url

Why Pay More by Peter Singer - Project Syndicate.url

Yen Reaches 100 Per Dollar as S&P 500 Trades Near Record - Bloomberg.url



20130510



(71) Twitter.url

Australia a Mecca for Yield Starved in Europe Mortgages - Bloomberg.url

Bernanke Sees Important Risks in Wholesale Funding - Bloomberg.url

Central Banks Keep Easing After Cuts Fail to Spur Growth - Bloomberg.url

China April New Yuan Loans, Money Supply Exceed Estimates - Bloomberg.url

Credit Pinch for Small Business Impedes U.S. Job Growth - Bloomberg.url

Dollar Gain Spurs Commodity Plunge as S&P 500 Fluctuates - Bloomberg.url

End the Home Mortgage Deduction - Bloomberg.url

Global Grain, Soybean Crops Seen Rising to Record by USDA - Bloomberg.url

Gross Says Bond Bull Market Probably Ended April 29 - Bloomberg.url

H.K. Growth Misses Forecasts on China’s Economic Slowdown - Bloomberg.url

Kittiratt Urges Thai Rate Cut Exceeding Quarter Percentage Point - Bloomberg.url

Liberal Anger Only Makes Ted Cruz Stronger - Bloomberg.url

McDonald’s Drops Angus Burger as Customers Favor Dollar Menu - Bloomberg.url

Mexico Industry Output Falls Three Times More Than Forecast - Bloomberg.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

Obama Austin Tech Tour Raises Democrat Profile in Texas - Bloomberg.url

Obama Second-Term Agenda Complicated by Cabinet Delays - Bloomberg.url

Sobel Plays Bad Cop as Treasury’s Lew Debates G-7 Austerity - Bloomberg.url

Sri Lanka Lowers Key Interest Rates to Spur Economic Growth - Bloomberg.url

The Trouble With Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann - Bloomberg.url

U.S. Poor Express Strong Values, Not Self-Pity - Bloomberg.url

U.S. Posts Widest Monthly Surplus Since 2008 on Revenue - Bloomberg.url

Vietnam Cuts Interest Rates as Global Monetary Easing Spreads - Bloomberg.url



20130511



Bernanke Sees Important Risks in Wholesale Funding - Bloomberg.url

Central Banks Keep Easing After Cuts Fail to Spur Growth - Bloomberg.url

China Currency Regulator Scraps Some Foreign Investment Rules - Bloomberg.url

China’s New Loans Pass Estimates, Sign of Growth Support - Bloomberg.url

Draghi Says ECB Considering ABS as One of ‘Many Options’ - Bloomberg.url

Fed in 2008 Showed Panic of 1907 Was Excessive Cutting Research - Bloomberg.url

G-7 Finance Chiefs Clash on Budget Cutting Amid Growth Weakness - Bloomberg.url

G-7 Reaffirms Commitment Not to Target Currencies as Yen Slides - Bloomberg.url

G-7 Signals Tolerance of Yen Drop for Now as Japan Debated - Bloomberg.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

Obama Austin Tech Tour Raises Democrat Profile in Texas - Bloomberg.url

out of question と out of the question の違い？ - 英語 - 教えて！goo.url

Sobel Plays Bad Cop as Treasury’s Lew Debates G-7 Austerity - Bloomberg.url

Twitter Seen Valued at $10 Billion Based on GSV Holding - Bloomberg.url

Twitter.url

U.S. Stocks Climb for Third Week Amid Earnings, Stimulus - Bloomberg.url

財政赤字　1000兆円 - Google Search.url



20130512



(9) Twitter.url

Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund -- 2011 Edition.url

BBC News - Christine Lagarde warns UK growth 'not good'.url

Bloomberg 'spying' accusations draw scrutiny of US banking officials Media guardian.co.uk.url

Board Directors Disappoint - NYTimes.com.url

Economist's View 'The Fed Dials the Wrong Unemployment Number'.url

Europe Seeks Fiscal Realism as Slump Prompts U.S. Pressure - Bloomberg.url

futileの意味 - 英和辞典 Weblio辞書.url

G-7 Intensifies Japan Focus Signaling Acceptance of Yen’s Fall - Bloomberg.url

George Osborne to tell IMF that austerity U-turn would do damage Politics The Observer.url

imf article iv britain - Google Search.url

IMF's Lipton adds pressure on UK to change economic course Reuters.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM (2).url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

resistance is futile. - Google 検索.url

The Big Bank Battle - Project Syndicate.url

The lessons of the North Atlantic crisis for economic theory and policy vox.url

The mystery of Ben Bernanke and the Japanese ketchup is solved!.url

The world economy Shaken, not stirred The Economist.url

Twitter - AdamPosen Looking forward to the IMF's ....url

Twitter.url

United Kingdom and the IMF -- Page 1 of 15.url

Visit could set IMF against Treasury - Telegraph.url

“adherence”の検索結果（141 件）：英辞郎 on the WEB：スペースアルク.url

“futile”の検索結果（47 件）：英辞郎 on the WEB：スペースアルク.url

“last ditch”の検索結果（35 件）：英辞郎 on the WEB：スペースアルク.url

“むなしい”の検索結果（47 件）：英辞郎 on the WEB：スペースアルク.url

“固執”の検索結果（120 件）：英辞郎 on the WEB：スペースアルク.url



20130513



(25) Twitter.url

Bond Sales to Fall 1st Time Since 2010 as U.S. Revenue Soars - Bloomberg.url

Cayman Islands Spars With Sachs Over Hedge Fund Directorships - Bloomberg.url

Central banks question Bloomberg privacy - FT.com.url

China’s Investment Slows as Production Trails Estimates - Bloomberg.url

Euro Recession Seen Longest in Single Currency Era - Bloomberg.url

Europe Eases Corporate Tax Dodge as Worker Burdens Rise - Bloomberg.url

Europe Tries to Boost Economy After Pressure From U.S. - Bloomberg.url

Gold Bears Pull $20.8 Billion as BlackRock Says Buy Commodities - Bloomberg#channel=f39e39690abfa1&origin=https%3A%2F%2Flogin.bloomberg.com&channel_path=%2Fwidget%2Fmost-pop.url

Holding Ourselves Accountable - Bloomberg.url

In Defense of Me, Me, Me - Bloomberg.url

In La-La Land, America’s Silliest Election - Bloomberg.url

It's Official (Sort of) JPMorgan Is World's Biggest Bank - Bloomberg.url

matthew c. klein the economist - Google Search.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

Rally Matches 1990s Gains With Valuations 28% Lower - Bloomberg.url

Retail Sales Gain Shows Resilient American Consumer - Bloomberg.url

U.S. Animal Spirits Since ’07 Proves Superior to EU Slump - Bloomberg.url

Yes, Central Banks Should Care About Financial Stability - Bloomberg.url



20130514



(22) Twitter.url

Antonym - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary.url

Comprehensive Retail Business Software - Microsoft Dynamics.url

ECB Picks Fight With Germany on EU Plan for Failing Banks - Bloomberg.url

Euro Recession Seen Longest in Single Currency Era - Bloomberg.url

Fed Says U.S. Household Debt Declined to 2006 Level - Bloomberg.url

Germany Is Wrong to Delay a Real Banking Union for Europe - Bloomberg.url

http--media.bloomberg.com-bb-avfile-ryzcIgul8UzA.url

Import Prices in U.S. Decreased in April as Fuel Costs Ebbed - Bloomberg.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

Pimco Pares Risk on Bet Monetary Easing Distorts Markets - Bloomberg.url

Prince Meets Jersey Shore Ready for Season Post-Sandy Jobs - Bloomberg.url

S&P 500 Rises on U.S. Optimism While Metals Fall on China - Bloomberg.url

Small-Business Optimism in U.S. Rose in April to Six-Month High - Bloomberg.url

U.S. Animal Spirits Since ’07 Proves Superior to EU Slump - Bloomberg.url

U.S. Deficit to Fall to $642 Billion, Says Budget Agency - Bloomberg.url

“見事 勝利”の検索結果（6 件）：英辞郎 on the WEB：スペースアルク.url

米国の積極的対策に軍配、欧州の漸進的対応との差に注目 - Bloomberg.url

ＰＩＭＣＯ：リスク減らす,「活発過ぎる中銀」が波乱もたらす - Bloomberg.url



20130515



(26) Twitter.url

Bank of France Touts Securitization Plan as Template for ECB - Bloomberg.url

EU Oil Manipulation Probe Shines Light on Platts Pricing - Bloomberg.url

Euro-Area Recession Deepens as Slowdown Exceeds Estimates - Bloomberg.url

Eurozone recession extends into 6th....url

Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Climbs as Outlook Improves - Bloomberg.url

How 3-D Printing Could Disrupt the Economy of the Future - Bloomberg.url

How Obama and Erdogan Can Start to End Syria's War - Bloomberg.url

King Declares U.K. Recovery Is in Sight as Outlook Raised - Bloomberg.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

New York Area Manufacturing Unexpectedly Contracts - Bloomberg.url

Production Falls as U.S. Feels Pull of Global Weakness Economy - Bloomberg.url

S&P 500 Extends Record High While Euro Slumps on Economy - Bloomberg.url

Save Europe Split the Euro - Bloomberg.url

Sebelius Asks for Trouble in Seeking Donations - Bloomberg.url

The New Sexy (at Least to VCs) Mobile Business Apps - Bloomberg.url

Turning Off IPhone Critical to Pilots Citing Interference - Bloomberg.url

What Pew's Europe Survey Doesn't Tell You About the EU - Bloomberg.url

Wholesale Prices in U.S. Decrease by Most in Three Years - Bloomberg.url



TOBEREAD 20130503



(9) Twitter.url

Austerity Sparks Suicides When Recession Hits Cutting Research - Bloomberg.url

Carney Guidance Policy Risks Backlash at BOE U.K. Credit - Bloomberg.url

Carney Says Policy Guidance Can Affect Interest Rates - Bloomberg.url

Draghi Mulls Negative Campaign as Economy Struggles - Bloomberg.url

Fed’s Lacker Says QE Won’t Lift Growth While Posing Risk - Bloomberg.url

FX（外国為替証拠金取引）ならマネックスFX／マネックス証券.url

G-7 Governments Not Playing Favorites as Central Banks Revamped - Bloomberg.url

http--elsa.berkeley.edu-~dromer-papers-Romer%20Short-Run%20Fluctuations%20January%202012.pdf.url

If Interest Rates Go Negative . . . Or, Be Careful What You Wish For - Liberty Street Economics.url

Lehman, PSI and the consequences of credit policy The third lever of macroeconomics The Economist.url

Long-Term Unemployment Is Turning Jobless Into Pariahs - Bloomberg.url

Monetary policy Can the Fed offset contractionary fiscal policy The Economist.url

Mostly Classical on SKY.FM.url

Mostly Classical Radio - SKY.FM Radio Enjoy amazing Free Internet Radio stations.url

NY Fed Research (NYFedResearch) on Twitter.url

Preventing The Next Catastrophe Where Do We Stand iMFdirect - The IMF Blog.url

Tarullo Calls for Greater Capital, Liquidity at Large Banks - Bloomberg.url

The Austerity Delusion Foreign Affairs.url

Twitter - AdamPosen @ryanavent Absolutely true! ....url

Twitter - AdamPosen Thanks to Paul Krugman for ....url

Twitter - ObsoleteDogma College grads are the only ....url

Twitter - Search - #Fin8.url

Varieties of Academic Temptation - NYTimes.com.url

Zero interest-rate policy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.url

zero lower - Google Search.url

Zero lower bound problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.url

Grand benign neglect





Regardless of the announcement of a New “Twist” (or because of that decision ??), this week we witnessed the great contraction of the risk appetite globally. Really terribly. Although this partially reflects the disappointment of the market with the “Limit of Monetary Policy”, I assume this reaction can not be necessarily attributed solely to the Fed’s decision.

---------- Dow Falls Most Since October 2008

---------- Silver falls 18%, the most since 1984

---------- Treasury Bonds Post Biggest Gain Since ’08 on Economy, Fed Operation Twist




This makes me recall the massive sell-off following the FOMC statement on August 10th, 2010 amid growing fear of the European debt crisis and the deflation, which resulted in Chairman Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole and then the launch of QE2 in November.

---------- Fed Effort to Aid Recovery Fails to Calm Investors



Even though we still have the debt problem of the EU which in fact seems to be even worsening, as many pointing out, given the inflationary trend and the backlash form the Congress, this time we couldn’t expect the QE3. With the already extreme low interest rates, there are few options for the Fed's monetary policy. Still, some economists say that the effect of lowering the interest rates --- for the shorter-term with the pledge “at least mid-2013” and for the longer-term with the “Twist” --- would be powerful in the long run. The monetary policy operates with a time lag, so it is too early to judge. Now we have to keenly keep an eye on the development of the European turmoil and the impasse of the Congress.

---------- Fed’s ‘Operation Twist’ Fails to Convince Investors It Will Boost Growth

---------- Fed drive to lower mortgage rates may fall short

---------- EU May Speed Permanent Fund to Stem Crisis

---------- Geithner Urges End to European ‘Cascading Default’ Threat

---------- All Eyes on Bernanke's Next Move


.

Today's FOMC

.


The Bloomberg News has never failed to provide fulfilling and quality contents. Of those, I recently found a prominent one. I assume that this illustrated the tough challenge the central banks currently face very well. Being focused on it’s next step, the Fed’s in a dilemma of whether to be a guardian of the price or to be a savior of the economy. This is what the “raison d’etre” of the Fed is.


Bernanke Joins King Tolerating Inflation
By Scott Lanman and Simon Kennedy - Sep 19, 2011 6:18 PM GMT+0900
Inflation flashing red may be less of a green light for higher interest rates as global growth falters. [ more ]



The Fed today is expected to launch the “Operation Twist (2.0)”. If so, my focus is on how it will be operated; the time span, the amount and so on. Though I’m personally interested in an explicit target ( Evans Strategy) and the Chairman Bernanke’s handling the FOMC after the three dissents.

       -----Fed Ponders Jobs, Inflation Targets

       -----Bernanke Is Tolerating Dissent but Pushing Past It


 
According to the Survey, any other option than the Operation Twist will have a slight or no possibility.

       -----Fed May Extend Duration of Treasuries With ‘Operation Twist,’ Survey Shows

       -----The Twist and Shout Should Be the Fed’s Next Maneuver: View




.

Fed's next steps --memo

Amid mounting expectations for the Fed’s next movement, there are several possible options;

① additional bond buying (QE3)
② lowering the 0.25% interest rate it pays banks on the $1.6 trillion in excess reserves
③ pledging to keep its balance sheet near a record $2.85 trillion (as of Sept. 1)
for an “extended period” or for a specific time
④ lengthening the average maturity in its portfolio
     -----Bernanke Seizes Day With Financial Repression as Congress Shirks Policies
     -----Pimco, Goldman, RBC Say Bernanke to Revisit Operation Twist
     -----Fed ‘Twist’ Could Push U.S. 10-Year Yield Toward 1.6%, CRT Capital Says
     -----‘Helicopter Ben’ risks destroying credit creation

and according to the minutes of August 9 meeting, some officials argued that “the Fed should have linked its pledge to achieving “explicit values” on the nation’s unemployment rate or an inflation rate”.
     -----Evans Calls for Further Fed Stimulus to Reduce U.S. Unemployment to 7.5%
     -----The Fed's Dual Mandate Responsibilities and Challenges Facing U.S. Monetary Policy



After the recent financial shock, we’ve witnessed changing stream in the economic activities globally.
There are more than a few economists who point out the structural factor underlying the ‘unfathomable’ stagnation.
     -----Employers Ready to Hire Can’t Find Workers Among 9.1% Unemployed
     -----Shrinking Labor Force May Curb U.S. Expansion for Two Decades
     -----Obama Faces 27-Week Jobless Rise as This Century Is Different

Though we should learn from history about ravages of inflation, recent global economy seems a bit sagging.
Lackluster economy tends to be more vulnerable to unanticipated shock and is not necessary a bountiful soil for prices.

     -----Uncaged Inflation, a Beast Easy to Free, Hard to Control: View


     -----Stagnant August Hiring in U.S. May Signal Renewed Recession
     -----The Second Great Contraction
     -----Economies in Peril Proving Voters Aren’t Careful About What Is Wished For
     -----BRICs No Cure for Global Economy This Time as Avon to Siemens Shares Sink


     -----Central Banks Refocus as Inflation Scare Passes
     -----Food-Price Gains Driven by Chinese Consumers Defy Easing Global Inflation
     -----TIPS Offer Cheap Inflation Shield as Expectations Fall, RBC’s Latter Says


Then, in a while, we’ll see a prescription.

     -----Fed Policy Makers Prepare for Action This Month
     -----Bernanke Says Tighter Budgets May Hurt Recovery as Fed Considers Stimulus


     -----The U.S. Economic Outlook
                  Chairman Ben S. Bernanke     September 8, 2011
                       At the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Minneapolis, Minnesota







-

2011年8月9日FOMC、雑感

学識から組織運営まで総合的観点からバーナンキ議長以上に今、この難局にある米国金融政策を担える方はいらっしゃらないと考え、時代の要請、歴史的必然といったものさえも考慮せざるを得ない、というのが揺ぎ無い個人的見解です。

とは言え、9日のFOMCで表明された「調的金利政策の継続期間明確化」は、2009年4月21日のカナダに先例があるにせよ、1992年11月以来となる最多の反対票を押し切る形での導入。政策効果等を巡って早くもエコノミスト等関係者の間に論争を呼んでいる模様。

また、Black out期間終了と同時に3人の総裁は相次ぎ反対票の理由を表明しています。

一方金融市場では、低金利政策の継続期間をより明確にすることで期待できるイールドカーブのフラット化が早くも報じられ、「無意味」といった酷評を覆す変化が、出始めています。今回の声明では委員会の米経済の情勢認識が明らかに下方修正され、これまで景気低迷の根拠とされた一時的要因の比重は、むしろ軽微であると述べられ、暗に構造的要因を示唆しているとも言えるのでないでしょうか。6月頃から経済指標にも明らかに顕著になりはじめ、直近では1Q GDPがわずか0.4%に下方修正されるなど著しい景気減速が様々な「ショック」に対する脆弱度が増しているとの危機感が今回の決定の背景にあると思われます。

金融危機の渦中、米国そして世界を崩壊の淵から救ったとして賞賛を集め、金融危機研究の権威でもある現議長は、800年にも及ぶ金融史の研究から導き出された金融危機の著名な教訓に対し、過去に起きた金融危機の対処はそもそも誤りであるか、タイミングならびに規模の点で不十分であったとの認識に基づき、「今回は違う」とのニュアンスを随所に伺わせながら、それでも異例に高い失業率を初めとする景気の回復ペースに苛立ちを隠しきれぬ様子も示されています。

今回の決定は、景気減速が懸念される中、奇しくも米国史上初めての国債格下げ、欧州の債務危機再燃が重なり、金融市場が混乱を極める状況下で下された決定だけに、一部では短視眼的な早合点で、単純な株式市場対策との誤解が不可避となる、最悪のタイミングだったと思います。それでも敢えて、QE3への期待も一部高まる中、今この時点で低金利政策の継続期間明確化による前傾姿勢を示したことの意義は十分に高く評価されるべきものだと考えます。「少なくとも（！！）」2013年半ばまで、との大胆な時間軸の導入からは、後手に回って、或いは帯に短し政策を採ったところで無意味に近く、金融政策当局者として現段階で考え得る最大の使命を果たすとの姿勢が強く伺えます。

金融政策スタンスの相違を反映し、前述の様に今回の決定に対し3人もの反対票が出たわけですが、その根拠として今回の決定が株式市場対策だったとの誤解を与えてはならぬ、とのことだった様です。ただそもそも金融政策はマクロが対象であって先回のような危機を除いて個別資産をターゲットにすることはないというのが原則なはず。むしろそのような市場の誤解を正すべき立場の方が委員会の判断に対する反対の根拠をこのように説明されることに違和感を持つのは筆者のみでしょうか。

もちろん、ブラード総裁が述べられるとおり、究極的には神のみぞ知る将来の経済情勢の推移を明確な時間軸に固定したことで不可避となる「信認」のリスクを人質としたことを巡る是非は、私にはとても判断付きませぬけれども、今まで培われた議長の手腕への信認、今後の手さばきへの自信があるからこその決定だったことは間違いないはずです。

26日に議長の講演を控え、市場の関心はQE3の着手如何に向き始めていますが、QE2終了後の経済情勢が最も良く物語っているとおり、QEの政策効果への疑念が高いのも事実。ただし、これはQEによって供給された資金で確実にマネタリーベースが拡大する一方、信用創造には結びつかず、結果としてFRBの準備預金残高に置き換わっただけだったため、景気刺激効果が乏しかったと言え、規制や景気先行への不安といった金融政策の操作対象外の要因への対処も不可欠だとの事実が明らかにされたと評価できるでしょう。

さらには、QE2開始時との決定的相違であるデフレ懸念は消滅し、インフレへの警戒感が強まる現在、様子見姿勢継続との観測が多数派ではないでしょうか。いずれにせよ、米経済始め欧州・中国など不確実性の高まる今後の世界経済情勢の推移に注視せざるを得ません。下半期の持ち直しへの期待を断念するのはまだ早い、と願うばかりです。